Love, T'Wolves top Spurs

Basketball Betting Lines

01/27/2012 - Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Suddenly, Kevin Love and the Minnesota Timberwolves have the San Antonio Spurs' number.

Love had 18 points and 16 rebounds Friday night and the Timberwolves scored the final 10 points of the game to beat the Spurs for the second time in a row, 87-79.

The Timberwolves also beat the Spurs on January 2 at home, snapping a 16-game losing streak in the series. Friday was only their third victory in the last 24 meetings between the teams.

Tony Parker had 20 points to lead San Antonio, while Tim Duncan scored nine with 10 rebounds.

The Spurs took a 79-77 lead on Gary Neal's three-pointer with 3:33 remaining, but didn't score again, missing their final seven shots of the game.

"A terrific win for our guys, especially over a veteran team that wins games like that all the time," said Timberwolves coach Rick Adelman. "Hopefully it's a step forward for us."

Love had his 18th double-double of the season by the third quarter, but wasn't the only Timberwolves player to get one.

Rookie point guard Ricky Rubio scored 18 points with 10 assists for his eighth double-double of the season, while Nikola Pekovic had 14 points and 10 rebounds for his first.

Rubio's free throws tied the game at 79 and his jumper put the Timberwolves on top for good, 81-79, with 2:42 remaining. Moments later, he fed Love for a bucket to make it a four-point game.

Which is becoming a common sight for the 9-10 Timberwolves, who can reach .500 for the first time this season with a win over the Lakers at home on Sunday.

Love called Rubio, who entered the NBA with an already sparkling reputation, a "great" player. Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich didn't need to be told that, calling the 6-foot-4 Spaniard a "heck of a passer" with a good ability to read situations on the court.

"He's like a football quarterback," Popovich said.

There were 13 lead changes and five ties during the game. Love complained that the Timberwolves haven't been doing enough defensively early in games, and it showed Friday.

The Spurs shot 52.6 percent in the first quarter and had a 22-21 lead at the buzzer. Both teams shot under 39 percent in the second quarter and San Antonio kept its one-point lead at halftime, 42-41.

Minnesota led by as many as six in the third quarter, tying the game at 64-64 going into the fourth. The Spurs then shot just 27.8 percent over the last 12 minutes.

"We want to just continue to get better," Love said, looking forward to the chance to reach .500 this weekend, "and especially in the fourth quarter when it's close."

Game Notes

The Spurs started a three-game road trip that also includes games in Dallas and Memphis. They are currently in the midst of playing 16 of 21 games on the road and are currently 3-4 during the stretch so far...The Timberwolves were coming off a 105-90 win in Dallas on Wednesday after Love signed his four- year contract extension.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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