California Derby favorite shipping in from South

Horseracing Betting Lines

01/13/2012 - Berkeley, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trainer Mike Machowsky is sending his three- year-old Hodge up from Santa Anita for Saturday's $100,000 California Derby at Golden Gate Fields. The 1 1/16-mile race is a prep event for the track's $200,000 El Camino Real Derby on February 18.

Hodge has been made the 9-5 favorite in the seven horse field. The gray colt will be ridden by Russell Baze from post two. Baze, a member of Racing's Hall of Fame, has won the Derby five times, a record he shares with another Hall of Fame rider, Johnny Longden.

Hodge is coming off a third-place finish in the Hollywood Prevue as a 21-1 longshot, beaten less than two-lengths. With one win in three starts the colt has earned $39,350.

Local runner Russian Greek is the 5-2 second pick in the program. Winner of the track's Gold Rush Stakes, Russian Greek, trained by Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer, will start from post six with Aaron Gryder in the saddle.

Owned by Olympia Star Inc., Russian Greek opened his career with a win at San Rosa last July. In November the colt was fifth in the Golden Nugget at Golden Gate before rallying from last to win the Gold Rush by a neck over Marshal Marini. He has banked $61,700.

Also shipping in from down south is 4-1 third choice Senor Rain. Trained by Peter Miller, the chestnut gelding will start from the rail post with Kevin Krigger riding.

Senor Rain, owned by Gary and Cecil Barber, had to be pulled up during the running of the Generous Stakes at Hollywood Park on November 27. On November 12 the colt set the pace in the Real Quiet Stakes at Hollywood before finishing third on the synthetic main track. Senor Rain has banked $73,416 with two wins in seven starts.

Here is the field for the California Derby in post position order: Senor Rain, Kevin Krigger, 4-1; Hodge, Russell Baze, 9-5; Unveiled Heat, Abel Cedillo, 12-1; Cahill Chrome, Juan Hernandez, 10-1; Blacky the Bull, Kerwin John, 6-1; Russian Greek, Aaron Gryder, 5-2 and Reconstruction, Frank Alvarado, 8-1.

Post-time on Saturday is scheduled for 7:22 p.m. (et).

Nflgamblebowl Horseracing Betting News

<< Utah G Watson has bone bruise
Salt Lake City, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Utah Jazz guard Earl Watson has been diagnosed with a bone bruise in his left knee and is a game-time decision for Saturday's contest against New Jersey. Watson left Wednesday's overtime loss to t

<< Broncos WR Decker out for Patriots game
Englewood, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denver Broncos wide receiver Eric Decker has been ruled out of Saturday's divisional playoff game against the New England Patriots due to a sprained knee. Decker was injured while attempting to ca

<< Real aims to keep pressure on Barcelona
Mallorca, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Madrid will try to keep the pressure on Barcelona with a win on Saturday at Mallorca, which would stretch the advantage at the top of La Liga for Jose Mourinho's side to eight points. Madrid m

<< Blue Jackets put Carter on IR
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Columbus Blue Jackets have placed center Jeff Carter on injured reserve because of a shoulder injury. Carter separated his right shoulder during last Sunday's game against Anaheim. The seventh-year vet

<< Phillies avoid arbitration with Kendrick
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Phillies have agreed to a one-year, $3.585 million contract with pitcher Kyle Kendrick, avoiding arbitration in the process. Kendrick, 27, went 8-6 with a 3.22 earned run average in 34 games (15

Southern Illinois running back declares for draft >>
Carbondale, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Southern Illinois junior running back Jewel Hampton will forsake his final year of eligibility to enter the NFL Draft this year. Hampton, who spent one season at Southern Illinois after transferring from the

Jeff Fisher chooses to coach Rams >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Fisher will be the next head coach of the St. Louis Rams. According to a report from the Post-Dispatch, Fisher decided to coach the Rams rather than the Miami Dolphins. Both teams sought the former l

Tottenham keen on continuing title charge >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There is a storm brewing in North London and Tottenham is at the source as in-form Spurs have marched up the Premiership table to move into a tie for second. While Manchester City and Manches

Penguins captain Crosby resumes skating >>
Sunrise, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pittsburgh Penguins superstar and captain Sidney Crosby returned to the ice for the first time in more than a month during Friday's morning skate. Crosby said he is allowed to "lightly exert," and

Atlanta takes Leroux No. 1 in WPS draft >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Beat picked U.S. national team and UCLA forward Sydney Leroux No. 1 overall in the 2012 Women's Professional Soccer draft Friday. The 21-year-old Leroux scored 30 goals in 36 games for U.S. U

Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.